The EUR/USD has managed to increase today and is still fighting hard to recover and to touch new highs on the short term, could increase because the US dollar index is still trapped below some important resistance levels. The USDX could slip much lower in the coming days and will force the USD to drop deeper. The pair may increase because has found temporary support, has retested an important dynamic support and now looks determined to climb higher again. We could see a minor rebound ahead of the FOMC meeting from December 14, personally I’m still expecting a minor decrease on the USD after the impressive rally. As you already know, the FED is expected to hike the Federal Funds Rate, the USD should increase sharply after this decision, so a short correction is natural right now.
The price has increased as the Euro-zone and the United States economic figures have come in mixed, the Euro-zone Unemployment Rate has decreased from 9.9% to 9.8%, has come much better versus the 10.0% estimate, while the Final Manufacturing PMI has remained steady at 53.7 points, matching expectations. The Spanish Manufacturing PMI has impressed today, was reported at 54.5, higher than the 53.7 estimate, the expansion has continued in the manufacturing sector, has increased from 53.3 points.
Moreover the Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate has decreased from 11.7% to 11.6%, matching expectations, unfortunately for the Euro, the French and German data have disappointed.
On the other hand the United States Unemployment Claims have increased from 251K to 268K in the previous week, have increased more versus the 252K estimate, the greenback has received a helping hand from the ISM Manufacturing PMI has increased from 51.9 points to 53.2 points, exceeding the 52.1 estimate, but wasn’t enough to save the USD from downside. Moreover the Final Manufacturing PMI has increased from 53.9 to 54.1, the expansion has resumed and has reached the highest level since November 2015.


The price has found support right above the 1.0521 level, has managed to climb again inside the descending pitchfork’s body, could still approach the median line (ml) of the minor descending pitchfork, is somehow expected to increase because has failed to close on the lower median line (ml) again. I want also to remind you that the perspective remains bearish as long as the rate is trading inside the descending pitchfork’s body despite a minor rebound, the price could climb, even to reach the upper median line (uml) and the descending sliding line (dotted line) of the descending pitchfork before will resume the downward movement.


The price is somehow expected to increase because we could have a minor Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern on the h4 chart, I’ve added a minor ascending pitchfork, the rate will become strongly bullish on the short term if the price will have enough energy to stabilize again above the median line (ml).

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