The EUR/USD has continued to decrease on the short term and now is
very close to reach a very strong confluence area, we’ll have to wait to see
how the price will react when will touch this zone. The currency pair looks undecided
on the short term, but the perspective remains bearish on the short term as the
US dollar index is expected to resume the upward movement because the traders
are expecting the FED to raise the interest rate in June or later in July, the
greenback should continue the bullish movement.

The Euro remains firm after the Euro-zone data was published, the
figures have come mixed, maybe will have a clear direction after the US data
will be released. The German Retail Sales have disappointed today, has dropped
by 0.9%, even if the traders have expected to see a 1.0% increase, while the
German Unemployment Change has decreased much more than was expected, has
reached -11K, much lower than the -4K estimate. The Euro-zone CPI Flash Estimate
has decreased by 0.1%, matching expectations, while the Core CPI Flash Estimate
rose by 0.8%, has come in line with expectations and has increased more compared
to the 0.7% growth in the previous reading period. The Euro-zone Unemployment
Rate remains steady at 10.2%.  

The currency pair could increase a little in coming two hours but
could decrease again after the United States economic data will be released,
the US Spending could increase by 0.7% in April, much more compared to the 0.1%
growth from March, while the Personal Income may increase by 0.4% for the
second month in April. Chicago PMI could increase from 50.4 to 50.8 points, signaling
that the expansion has continued. Maybe the most important fundamental event
will be the release of the CB Consumer Confidence, the economic indicator could
increase from 94.2 to 96.1 points and could push the greenback much higher
versus all its counterparts. 

 The price has found temporary
support on the lower median line (lml) of the descending pitchfork, actually
the price has retested the lower median line (lml) and now could increase on
the short term if the US data will come worse, personally I’m expecting the
price to reach the confluence area formed at the intersection of the lower
median line (LML) of the ascending pitchfork with the lower median line of the
short descending pitchfork. The perspective remains bullish on the short term
as long as the price is trading inside the short descending pitchfork, the
price could increase to retest the minor median line (ml) before will resume
the downward movement, personally I’m expecting to see the price much lower in
the coming period if the Federal Reserve will decide to hike the rate.

I’ve added the H4 chart to show you better the price action, you can
see that the pair has increased a little and could increase to reach the 50% Fibonacci
line or could jump much higher to reach the minor median line (ml). Any
disappointment from the US economy could help the price to increase, but if the
data will come much better, then the pair will plunge. 

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