Why I am a bear on the EURO?
1. The ECB has not changed monetary policy in regards to introducing negative interest rates
2. The Eurozone is in an expansionary stage of economic activity. This indicates that the aim is to expand and stimulate economic behaviour through (increased lending to debtors and creditors) in the Euro area.
3. The sale of German Bonds has decreased impacting on the bearishness of the Euro in the foreign exchange market.
4. Market on the Euro is still selling the Euro ever since the introduction of negative interest rates by the ECB.

Fundamental Summary

Core CPI data came in unchanged at 0.8% followed by the CPI (YoY) at 0.5% versus previous 0.4% indicating an increase in inflation for the ECB and the Eurozone economy.
GDP data was then released. The Year –on-Year remained unchanged at 1.6% and so did the Quarter-on-Quarter at 0.3%.
The release of Manufacturing PMI increased from the projected level of 53.3% to 53.5% a 0.2% increase.
The ECB Economic Bulletin was released. It provides insight into the overall analysis of economic and monetary developments covering macroeconomic projections on inflation, growth, public finances, and external trade within the Eurozone area.
Unemployment within the Eurozone remained stable at 10% from a previous 10%. Thus illustrates stable labour activity.
The markit.com composite PMI for declined from 53.7% to 53.3%.
Services PMI also declined from the previous 53.5% to the current 52.8%.
Both the September MoM and YoY PPI increased to 0.1% from the previous -0.2% -0.1%) .
The YoY September PPI declined from (-1.9% to -1.5%).

German Government 10YR Bond Yieldswww.tradingeconomics.com
Germany 10Y decreased 0.05% or 26.82% to 0.10 on Wednesday November 2 from 0.18. Historically, the Germany Government Bond 10Y reached an all-time high of 10.80 in September of 1981 and a record low of -0.19 in July of 2016.
With a decline in German bond yields from investors you can expect to see the market to resume its previous bearish sentiment in the week ahead from (7-11 November 2016). Bearish sentiment has been in the market ever since the introduction of negative interest rates by the ECB

Brexit Newswww.economist.com
High Court in London ruled that only parliament has the authority to trigger Article 50 of the European Union. This would mean that in order for the UK to exit or stay in the European Union Britain’s parliament must vote and only then when majority vote to leave the EU will that trigger the Brexit process using article 50.
Click here to understand article 50.What is Article 50?

US Elections
The most pressing news that has a major impact on the foreign exchange market is the US Elections on Tuesday 8 November. Most investors have taken profit this past week in anticipation of which presidential candidate will win the elections. It is a subjective event that when trading it I would wait to see the results of the election. psssst Trump is going to win in my view.
I would follow this strategy as described in this article below
3 Move Trading Strategy

Commitment of Traders Report as of Tuesday 1 NovemberCOT Report
EURUSD: Decrease in buyers, Increase in sellers, further decrease in the weekly close price and net non-commercial positions. Bearish market(net non-commercial positions below waterline)

Eurozone economic calendar Week 7-11 November 2016 www.investing.com
Retail sales
September YoY (Year-on-Year) is forecasted to increase from at 0.6% to 1.3%.
September MoM (Month-on-Month) retail sales are forecasted to decline at -0.3% vs. actual -.01%.

Technical Summary
EURUSD closed higher for the week @1.1140
EURAUD closed higher for the week @ 1.4492
EURGBP closed higher @ 0.8894
EURCHF closed at support @1.0777
EURNZD closed for the week at 1.5949
EURCAD ended of the week @ 1.4929

Look for selling opportunities on the Euro in the upcoming week


At the start of the month bulls continued to move price up to MR1. Bear will look for an opportunity to sell as MR1 is bear entry into the market. Price is currently at 1.114 at MR1 resistance. Look for selling opportunity around this area.


Price has broken WR2 and continued upward direction for bulls. Bears will look to sell at major resistance level of WR3


Double bottom at support. Price is currently above Monthly central. Bulls may attempt to push price up even further to MR1 as this is the bull target area. Bears will look to sell at MR1


Price broke above weekly central and still up from WM3. Market is still bullish. Bulls target WR1. Bears will enter at this area

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