Fundamental Summary

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)- www.markit.com
Eurozone PMI rose from 52.6 in September to 53.7 in October, signalling the fastest monthly increase in business activity since December of last year.
October’s PMI is consistent with a quarterly GDP growth rate of 0.4%, up from the 0.3% rate signalled for the third quarter.
In particular, backlogs of work (orders received but not yet completed or started) accumulated at the fastest rate for over five years, meaning business activity growth and hiring look set to accelerate further as we head towards the end of the year. The October survey saw an especially encouraging recovery in German growth, with the PMI pointing to a 0.5% pace of expansion and the rate of employment growth climbing to a five-year peak.

German Government 10YR Bond Yieldswww.tradingeconomics.com
Germany 10Y increased 0.01% or 12.94% to 0.10 on Thursday October 27 from 0.01 in the previous trading session. The Germany 10Y changed +3,100.00% during the last week, -166.21% during the last month and -79.57% during the last year. Historically, the Germany Government Bond 10Y reached an all time high of 10.80 in September of 1981 and a record low of -0.19 in July of 2016. The rise in the German 10 YR bond yield has impacted on the bullish bias of the Euro against other major currency pairs. A drop in 10YR German bond yields may result in Bearish bias of the Euro. Another reason to be aware of government bond yields is that they act as an indicator of the overall direction of the country’s interest rates and expectations.

For example In the Eurozone, you would focus on the German 10-year government bond. A rising yield in Germanys’ government bond makes Euro bullish. A falling yield results in Euro bearish.
You may want to visit What are Bonds?

Brexit News– Theresa May under fire www.theguardian.com
Theresa May has come under intense criticism from politicians across the UK and Europe after it emerged that she had warned of the dangers of Brexit in a private talk at Goldman Sachs a month before the referendum vote.
The prime minister was accused by a string of MPs, headed by Jeremy Corbyn, of ignoring her own concerns about the risks of leaving the single market, as revealed in her remarks to City bankers that were leaked to the Guardian on Tuesday night.

Technical Summary
The EURUSD closed higher for the week @1. 0982
EURAUD closed higher for the week @ 1.4452
EURGBP closed higher @ 0.9008
EURCHF closed at support @1.0846
EURNZD closed for the week at 1.5340
EURCAD ended of the week @ 1.4700

Eurozone economic calendar Week 31 October -4 November 2016 www.investing.com
For the week of 31 October -4 November we can expect high to moderate impact news.
Monday
We have CPI (YoY) for October projected at 0.5% versus previous 0.4% an increase is expected.
Wednesday
The release of Manufacturing PMI is due for release. No change in index is eyed and is forecasted to remain at the same level of 53.3%.
Thursday
We can expect an ECB economic bulletin press release followed by the unemployment rate later in the day. A decline is unemployment is eyed from previous figure of 10.1% vs. the forecasted 10%.
Friday
The www.markit.com composite PMI for October is due for release and the index is forecasted to remain unchanged at 53.7%.
Services PMI for October is expected to also not change from the previous 53.5%
Both the September MoM and YoY PPI stats are due for release. An increase in MoM PPI from (-0.2% vs. forecasted -0.1%) is eyed. The YoY September PPI is also forecasted to change from previous (-2.1% to -1.8%). No further releases are expected for the week

Commitment of Traders Report as of Tuesday 25 October Forex.Today COT Report
EURUSD: Increase in buyers, increase in sellers, further decrease in the weekly close price and net non-commercial positions. Bearish (net non-commercial positions below waterline)

US Dollar Weekly Review by Ryan Gandalf Van JaarseveldRyan Gandalf Van Jaarsveld

At the start of the month of October bears sold off of Daily 21 MA from the monthly central with targeting MS3. Bears target was reached. Price failed to break support at MS3 giving Bulls an opportunity to buy at MS3 and targeting monthly central. The 21 MA may act as dynamic resistance at MS2

At the start of the week price opened at weekly central at WM2, bulls bought at support. Price broke weekly central to make higher high above weekly central. A break of price above WR1 will indicate continued strength in bulls in the market.

At the start of the month of October bears sold off the monthly central with a target of MS2. Bears target was reached. Price failed to break support at MS2 giving Bulls an opportunity to buy at MS2 and targeting monthly central. Bears may attempt to enter the market at MS1 resistance to make price fall.

At the start of the week price opened at weekly central at WPP, bears sold off of H4 21 MA to target WS1. Bulls entered at support at WS1 to target weekly central. Price broke weekly central to make higher high above weekly central. Bear target of WR1 from WS1 is reached for the week.

3 thoughts on “Euro Weekly Review 24-28 October 2016”

  1. Laurence Andre Williams says:

    Well Though out.

  2. Laurence Andre Williams says:

    Well Though out. good technicals and fundamental analysis.

  3. Laurence Andre Williams says:

    Well Thought out. good technicals and fundamental analysis.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.