News event of the day that could this trade :

. (EUR) Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting
. (EUR) Trade Balance
. (NZD) Business NZ PMI


EURNZD is currently trading at MM2 level - Bull's buy zone for the month. MM2 also coincides with daily role reversal area. It would be a great swing setup to buy and hold it till the end of the month towards target of MM4 (1.5251).


On 4hr, price breaks above the trendline, made a HH and currently consolidating above WPP level (1.4725). Stoch is rolling into oversold territory. This is classical buy setup for me, that 10 out 10 times, I'd be looking to go long. I'd go into 15min TF and look for buying opportunities.


Alternatively, for a conservative entry, I'd wait for price to break and close above the trendline and take the breakout trade with short term profit target at WR2 (1.5052) for the week.

One thought on “EURNZD Daily Buy Setup – 15th Feb 2017”

  1. Ryan Gandalf van Jaarsveld says:

    Dear Joe

    Thanks for your trade plan. Herewith feedback as discussed in class this morning.

    1. Buying EURNZD means you are buying Euro – what are your reasons fundamentally for buying Euro?

    Daily chart
    You mention that price is currently at MM2 giving bulls a target of MM4 though you will notice that price came off of MS1 which means the bull target is actually MR1. While we are at support I am not sure if you noticed the stochastic divergence setting up on the daily chart. Notice how the stochastic has not made it’s way to the overbought zone compared to the previous bullish move. Also note that bears sold at MPP which means the bearish target for the month is MS2. We can see that price broke through role reversal resistance at MM2 – which was the bottom of the previous range and that price is now move down to find support at this level though price has failed to make a higher high above WPP. If you had a 21 and 55 on your chart you would notice that price is currently at the daily 21 – as a rule of thumb do not buy when price is at the 21 and the 21 is resistance. The 21 indicates that price is going to make a lower low and while you may find that bulls buy at MM2 and take price higher you will find that sticking to your rules will give you more consistency in your trading. If you bought here and price did break to the upside you might try it in the future and fail – be careful of creating bad trading habits that will bite you in the future. Bad habits are difficult to break and will mess with your psychology. If I was a bull on this pair I would look at the daily chart and simply say that I want to buy this though I can’t buy it now. Adding the stochastic divergence to the 21 gives me two reasons why I am not very keen on getting long here.


    I notice that you aren’t using confluence on your H4 chart – consider adding monthly confluence to your H4 chart so that you can see your support and resistance pivot clusters. I also strongly recommend adding the indicator that shows the psych and mid-point psych levels. Taking a look at the H4 chart I agree that price is currently at WPP which is support though I am concerned that price has come off of WM3 and that after price came off WM3 we made a lower high at 1.48 (currently marked by the top of your channel) – this does not feel very bullish. Also that falling stochastic indicates the price is bearish – also notice the stochastic divergence – not very bullish. If the daily stoch was moving up and H4 was either oversold or at least moving up I would feel a lot better though that would all be put aside due to the daily 21 which would result in my final decision being to rather wait for a better opportunity if I was a bull. Again, if this was so bullish then why when bulls bought at WPP did we not break WM3. If anything I would trap price here with WPP identified as the bottom of the range and WM3/ 1.48 as the top of the range and then wait for a break out to the upside (if I was a bull) and then buy the pull back. The only problem with that plan is the resistance at MPP marking the top of the macro range. I think if you were a bull you would have bought this pair last week at 1.4550 which was where bears took profit.


    After taking all previous comments into account, if you still wanted to buy this at WPP then buy this at WPP – buy as close to support as possible. Your trade plan indicates that the conservative entry would be to wait for a break of the channel and then buy the pullback at the role reversal support trend line. I don’t think that is conservative at all – according to your trade plan you see price moving up from WPP, then moving down from WM3 and then bulls buying at the role reversal support (the top of the channel) though why would bulls buy there – that is resistance and the top of the range. No – if you were going to buy this then WPP would be the conservative entry because it’s support – waiting for price to move up and then trying to enter in bearish territory is not a good idea at all. If you are concerned about price moving up then wait for a break of WM3 and buy that pull back though again that MPP indicates the top of the macro range which is not a good place to be buying. IF I was a bull then the levels I would look to buy at would be WPP, WM2 or 1.4550 though again – that daily 21 tells me I cannot buy this pair now so even if price was at those support levels I would still have to wait for a break of the daily 21, let the 55 indicate a reversal and then look for opportunities to go long – and even if this goes up I would not feel like I missed a trade – in order for your trading to be consistent you have to have set of trading rules you never break no matter what. You have to decide whether you want to be the ocean or the cork.

    Ryan Gandalf
    Analyst Forex.Today
    e-mail: [email protected]
    Skype: Ryan.Gandalf

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