If you are a Euro bull then you are definitely deep in the blue and that should be, given the positive policy shift at the ECB. For starters, ECB is in the brink of announcing major monetary policy changes in the coming months and that will start with reduction in asset purchase. If they set a date and begin the process, then the Euro will rally. However, as thing looks like some officials in ECB are already worried about the strong common currency. If that is so, chances that some earlier decisions made by ECB will be put off till December, not October as anticipated.
I will advise for Euro shorts until after the meeting in October before trend resumption continues. In other news, as a major dairy player in the globe, the NZD benefitted from the strong rise of dairy prices in the biweekly dairy auction. From data, price rose 0.9% following a 0.3% rise a month earlier and this rise was the highest in 4 months.
Given this development, I will look to benefit from the positive swap by entering short. It looks like there is an explosion down anyway as I type this so, wait for a correction say 30 pips higher and short. The weekly chart is bearish with a sell signal while the daily chart is trending in the same direction.
Trade as follows:
Sell Limit: 1.63-1.632
Stop Loss: above 1.64
Take Profit: 1.52-1.55
Have a good trading day.