EURCHF has been forming lower highs and higher lows, creating a symmetrical triangle pattern o its 1-hour chart.

Price has been consolidating tightly and moving closer to the end of the triangle, indicating that a breakout might take place soon.

The chart pattern is approximately 150 pips in height so the resulting breakout could be of the same size. A break above the resistance around the 1.0925 level might confirm that an uptrend is bound to take place while a move below the support at 1.0900 could mark the start of a downtrend.

The moving averages aren’t providing directional clues since they are moving back and forth for the time being. Stochastic just made it out of the oversold zone, suggesting that the path of least resistance is to the upside. However, RSI is on middle ground and also not giving any strong directional hints.

Event risks for this setup include the release of the ECB minutes later on in the week, as this would indicate whether or not other policymakers also support the idea of further easing. Recall that Governor Mario Draghi admitted that they’re willing to add to stimulus if inflationary pressures continue to weaken.

The flash CPI reading for September indicated deflation, reminding euro traders that easing is on the table. However, the SNB might also be keen on stepping up its intervention efforts if ECB is inclined to add stimulus.


Other event risks from the euro region are the release of the industrial production figures from France and Italy, as well as Germany’s trade balance report due towards the end of the week. ECB Governor Draghi is set to give a testimony today, possibly dropping some hints on the central bank’s current policy bias, and Germany will release data on factory orders. Only the CPI and unemployment rate are up for release from Switzerland this week. 


Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.