EURCHF has been trading steadily lower on its 1-hour chart, as the recent highs of price action can be connected by a falling trend line. Price is currently testing the trend line resistance, which might still keep further gains in check.
If so, a move back towards the previous lows near the 1.0750 minor psychological support might be in order. Stronger selling pressure could spur a break below this lows onto the next potential floor around the 1.0600 levels.
On the other hand, an upside break past the trend line resistance around the 1.0850 mark could lead to an uptrend. The 100 SMA looks ready to cross above the longer-term 200 SMA but both RSI and stochastic are headed south, indicating that the downtrend is likely to carry on.
Event risks for this setup include the preliminary CPI releases from Germany and Spain later on this week. Deflation has been a huge concern in the euro zone, as declines in price levels in the top economies could mean downside pressure on the rest of the region. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.1% drop in Germany’s preliminary CPI while Spain could show a 0.6% decline in price levels.
The KOF economic barometer is the only report scheduled for release from Switzerland this week, with analysts expecting to see a drop from 100.4 to 100.1. For now, the downbeat ECB statement might be enough to limit the euro’s gains but any indication that the central bank might need to ease would also increase the odds of SNB intervention.
Recall that ECB Governor Draghi said that they are already looking into a range of policy measures that can be applied in case inflationary pressures continue to weaken. Earlier in the week, preliminary PMI readings from France and Germany have mostly surprised to the upside, keeping the shared currency supported for the time being.