Prices were hovering well above channel support in November and the upward sloping structure is what caught my attention as whenever a channel forms WITH the trend, it often suggests exhaustion and in this case it seems to be the bulls who have been in control since late February of this year. In fact they have managed to push prices higher by more than 1000pips. However, Monday’s close at 1.1609 was below the key support and confirmed the upward sloping flag that’s been in the making since Aug. Of course, this is not the best time of the year to trade due to lack of liquidity in the market, but I will certainly watch this pair and it’s currently re-testing the broken channel support. A confirmed break of this support as new resistance should open up toe the 1.150 handle. A daily close above channel support near 1.1630/40 would negate the bearish outlook for now.

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