EURAUD Resistance Turned Support (Jan 10, 2017)

EURAUD recently broke past resistance at the 1.4400 major psychological level and zoomed up to the 1.4700 area. Price has since pulled back and is currently testing the broken resistance at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. Price seems to be finding support at the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point as well. Also, a small double bottom formation can be seen with the neckline at 1.4450.

Stochastic is heading up from the oversold region to hint at a return in buying pressure. A break past 1.4450 could be enough to confirm the potential climb, likely taking price back up to the 1.4700 area and beyond. On the other hand, a break below the moving averages and lowest Fib at 1.4350 could lead to a drop back to the swing low at 1.4100.

Economic data from Australia turned out weaker than expected earlier today, with retail sales up by 0.2% versus the estimated 0.4% gain and the earlier 0.5% increase. Chinese CPI missed expectations and printed a 2.1% increase compared to the 2.2% consensus and the earlier 2.3% figure. PPI beat expectations at 5.5% versus 4.6%.

Data from the euro zone has been mostly better than expected so far, with yesterday’s German trade balance and Sentix investor confidence figure coming in the green. Prior to this, euro zone flash headline and core CPI have also surpassed expectations. French industrial production data is due today.

There are no other major reports lined up from both Australia and the euro zone for the latter half of the week, although Italy is still set to release its industrial production data. Headlines from China highlighting how monetary authorities are trying to rein in offshore investments could dampen confidence in the world’s second largest economy and demand for Australia’s commodities.

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