Hello Traders,
Monday was a slow day and with no major releases, market keep oscillating at a narrow range. As usual, this calm comes before a storm and that is expected tomorrow when political decisions will be made. Holland will be selecting their prime minister and so far, it’s all anti immigration and anti Muslim which is not good for integration. It bites back in the long term. The House of Commons will also vote and decide on the rights EU citizens have and that will keep the ball rolling for when Article 50 will be triggered. Economically, we have monetary policy decisions from Japan, Switzerland, UK and the US. This will be accompanied by a plethora of other economic data including retail sales, CPI from US, Labor reports from the UK and AUD. Then we have growth expectation from the New Zealand. Sources predict a stronger NZD-this is actually data derived from NZEIR-throughout 2020. New Zealand’s labor conditions and wages are also expected to pick up with exports dropping. Yesterday we also saw Mario Draghi speaking and there were market moving comments from him but he focused on growth and overall productivity in the Euro zone. Analysts remain cautious of the pace of FED rate hikes and with no indication of policy shift from the ECB-just talks nothing substantiated, things remains anti-Euro at the moment.
Today we look to short the EUR and follow with the known economic expectations. The AUD is trending higher and yesterday it gained massively against the Euro and making up for last week losses. Placing a Fibonacci tool indicate that prices reversed at the 61.8 level with an oversold stochastics and price action over extension. So far there is break below temporary support in the 30 min chart and the idea now is to follow the trend with profit taking at 161.8 Fibonacci extension line. I would recommend holding this trade as a swing trade until when a buy signal forms on the daily chart. This will turn out as follows:
Sell stop: 1.4070
Stop Loss: 1.4120
Take Profit: Close this trade when a buy signal forms in the daily chart for swing traders.
Take Profit: 1.3970-for intraday traders.
Have a good trading day.

EURAUD 30 min chart-14.03.2017

Source: Dalmas Ngetich

EURAUD Daily chart-14.03.2017

Source: Dalmas Ngetich

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