The EUR/USD increased today and is fighting hard to resume the yesterday’s bullish candle. Price has found temporary support again, but is still under some selling pressure on the daily chart, it could go down if the USDX will have enough energy to jump higher in the upcoming period.
Today could be crucial for the USD, the US is to release high impact data later, so the fundamental factors will take the lead again and will shake the currency market. The greenback needs good economic figures to be able to dominate the currency market, so only some good numbers will force the USDX to jump higher and the EUR/USD to go down.
The German Prelim CPI is expected to be released today and is forecasted to increase by 0.5% in February after the 0.7% drop in the former reading period. The Euro received support from the Spanish Flash CPI, which increased by 1.1% in February, beating the 0.9% and the 0.6% growth in the former reading period, the M3 Money Supply rose by 4.6%, matching expectations, while the Private Loans have increased by 2.9%, matching expectations as well.
The US Core Durable Goods Orders could increase by 0.4%, more versus the 0.7% estimate, while the Durable Goods Orders are expected to drop by 2.4% versus a 2.8% growth in the former reading period, the Goods Trade Balance will be released as well and could remain steady in the negative territory, at -72.3B. The CB Consumer Confidence could increase from 125.4 to 126.2 points in February, the Prelim Wholesale Inventories could increase by 0.3%, less versus the 0.4% growth in the former reading period, while the HPI could remain steady at 0.4% growth.
The Richmond Manufacturing Index will be released as well and could increase to 15 points from 14 points.
You can see that the price has found temporary support on the 50% Fibonacci line (ascending dotted line) and now it could come back to test and retest the median line (ml). You should be careful in the upcoming hours because the fundamental events will bring a high volatility. Technically, it should drop deeper, but the economic events could invalidate this scenario.