If you are following my E/U posts you know I am trading a long term a-b-c type correction. Judging the markets reaction off the FOMC minutes release the USD was weaker than if the minutes would’ve been more of a hawkish tone. Could that be the spark for E/U to rally into wave ‘c’ especially if rates remain the same in March?
This week it seems price is at an important zone at the M-S1 and 61.8 fib of the rally off the Dec 2016 low. Stoch is in the OS zone and 21-55 MACD is close to the ‘0’ line and if it crosses it is an early indication that the monthly stoch may cycle up as well (see hour chart). The current price level did not close below the 61.8 fib so watch for a trend change on the hourly.
Watch for the 21-55 MACD to rise above the ‘0’ line to kick off the daily stoch & 5 ma move. Watch for price to rally above the 55 ma. Look to trade OS stoch cycles to get on a possible early entry to a longer term trend. Price did bounce off the weekly support zone of W-M1. If this fib from yesterday holds price could rally hard today as it will be a shallow retracement.
The plan earlier this week did not hold support as mentioned in the plan so price fell to the next possible support zone. As with the prior plan follow the correlations on USD/CHF, NZD/USD, & Gold. What would also help this trade is if the EUR/GBP rallies further.
Lets see how it plays.