I have just finished my review of the latest COT reports and I will be looking to use this information in my trade plans for the coming week.
In future I will be carrying out these reviews on a Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning after the release of the latest data.
The COT report for AUD is still strongly net long, although we have recently seen an uptick in the number of short positions held on this currency. I will be looking for long opportunities on the AUD and hope to be in a strong position with stop at break even before the Aussie jobs report on Thursday.
Australia has met or exceeded expectations for employment change over the past 5 months, and another good print here could be a great catalyst for further upside in AUDUSD, and if AUDJPY can make its way back to the M2-S1 area then this could be a good place to buy.
Net positions on CAD have been flat over the past 4 weeks although I somewhat suspect that has changed since the rate hike by the BOC. Even so, long positions have been trending up over the longer term whilst short positions have been trending down.
The COT Report aligns with my bullish bias on the CAD so I will be looking to short USDCAD from resistance at the 1.22000 level and buy CADJPY around 83.400.
Net positions on the EUR have been trending up with a corresponding up-trend in long positions and down-trend in short positions. Given EUR’s recent break and close above previous highs I will be looking to long EURUSD from the 1.20000 area which will also correspond with the 4hr 21 EMA.
We are net short on the GBP with a down trending net positions line. Longs are generally flat with a short-term downtick, but short positions have been steadily rising over the last 8 weeks with more speculators looking to bring the GBP down.
GBP finds itself at a major level of resistance with practically every oscillator on every time frame overbought. I got a short entry signal at 1.32050 that I did not take, as strong recent momentum in GBPUSD could see this pair reach 1.32500 or even the MM4 at 1.33450 before reversing.