Before I start posting the Yen pairs I first want to go back to the Dollar pairs, specifically the commodity currencies vs. the Dollar. Just to recap, as per the analysis I have posted thus far we have the Dollar Index indicating possible Dollar strength due to price opening at MM2 which is supported by EURUSD and Gold both opening at MM3 and then we also have Copper and WTI opening at MM3. That’s a lot of evidence pointing in the direction of risk off as we head into 2018. Although we can go further and investigate if the commodity currencies support our current hypothesis. We’ll take a look at the Aussie first then the Kiwi then Cad and then Zar (we need to take Platinum into consideration for Zar, I’ll post that next. Side note – if you can get your hands on ZARJPY and do some analysis with some predicted monthly’s and weekly’s, a weak Zar against a strong Yen could be a great trade. I don’t have ZARJPY so I have not done the analysis so you would have to check it out). I am posting all four pairs in this post to save you time dear reader.

AUDUSD Daily

Well there we have it. Not only is price going to open at MM3 but price is also at MR2 which is where Bulls are likely to take profit. We also have a 50% bearish fib and we have role reversal resistance. The bearish target for the month is MM1 which will be a 100% retracement. Bulls, on the other hand, will buy at MM2 with a target of MM4. Note that if you fib December's bullish move you will see that MM2 is a 50% retracement and the target of 138.2% is just below MM4.

AUDUSD H4

MM3 is also WM3. The target for WM3 is WM1. Note that MM2 is just below WS2. The market is bullish so if you are a Bear then consider waiting for a reversal pattern on H1 or lower before shorting. For Bulls, the 21 is dynamic support though buying into a MM3/ WM3 pivot cluster is quite risky especially with Bulls taking profit at MR2 and all the evidence we have looked at which points to a high probability of risk off trade as we head into the year. If Bulls do buy at the 21 and price does break above MM3/ WM3 then consider waiting for a pullback for a more conservative trade. Alternatively looking for opportunities to buy lower at the weekly bearish target WM1/ WS2/ MM2 is a good price.

NZDUSD Daily

Price is opening just below MM3. In fact, we can see that Bears already sold there on Friday. The bearish target for MM3 is MM1. Bulls are paying attention to MPP as this is the role reversal of December's previous high and MM2. MPP has a target or MR2 and MM2 has a target of MM1. The daily stoch is overbought and has crossed though has not rolled over into the trade zone just yet.

NZDUSD H4

MM3 is also WM3. The target for WM3 is WM1. Note that MM2 is a few pips below WS2. Bears are looking for reversal pattern setups on H1 or lower due to the market being bullish. As mentioned on the AUDUSD charts, the 21 is dynamic support though it's risky buying into a WM3/ MM3 cluster. Again, if Bulls buy there and price breaks above WM3/ MM3 then waiting for a pullback before going long would be a far more conservative trade. Alternatively, looking for opportunities to buy low makes sense and MPP/ WS2/ MM2 are all support.

USDCAD Daily

Price is going to open at MM2 with a bullish target of MM4. Bears are paying attention to MPP which marks the bottom of the previous range.

USDCAD H4

MM2 is also WM2. WM2 has a target of WM4/ WR2. Bulls are looking out for reversal pattern setups on H1 or lower. As mentioned in both the Aussie and Kiwi analysis, the 21 is dynamic resistance though again, selling into a WM2/ MM2 cluster is risky. If Bears do sell at the 21 and price does break support at WM2/ MM2 then waiting for a pullback before going short is the safer option. Alternatively Bears could consider selling higher at WM3/ MPP confluence which marks the bottom of the previous range. If you are a Bear then keeping a close eye on those support levels I discussed in the WTI analysis makes sense when CAD approaches MPP/ WM3.

USDZAR Daily

Price is going to open at MM2 in a sideways market with an oversold daily stoch. The target for MM2 is MM4.

USDZAR H4

MM2 is also WM2. The target for WM2 is WM4/ WR2. As we can see a double bottom formed though price has not made a higher high. Bulls are looking out for one. Bears are paying attention to WM4/ WR2/ MPP. A break of role reversal resistance at WM4/ WR2/ MPP is a reversal and a more conservative trader could wait for that. Just keep in mind that a Wm2/ MM2 cluster is as serious as support gets.

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