The U.S. dollar is falling across the board on Friday, after the release of disappointing U.S. economic reports and amid ongoing concerns over recent U.S. political events.
The U.S. Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.4% in April, below expectations for a 0.6% gain. Core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, increased by 0.3% last month, compared to expectations for a 0.5% rise. A separate report showed that the U.S. consumer price index gained 0.2% in April, in line with expectations and compared to a 0.3% decline in the prior month. Year-over-year, consumer prices increased 2.2% last month, below forecasts for a 2.3% rise. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, ticked up 0.1% in April, less than the expected 0.2% gain.
The Australian dollar is getting benefits from the declines of the U.S. dollar.
Technically, on 9 May 2017, I stated that AUDUSD was in apotential corrective rally and this currency pair has been trending higher since it bottomed at 0.7330. My updated and preferred Elliott Wave count shows that AUDUSD (H4 chart) finished wave i in (5) at around 0.7330. Wave i followed a downside Impulse (IM) pattern, hence wave ii would develop as a upside corrective wave that is expected to be a Zigzag (ZZ) wave pattern. The Minuette wave (a) is now in progress and consists of five impulsive waves that may target 0.7490 in short term.
In general, I expect AUDUSD to trend higher in short term (within four weeks to come) and wait to enter a long entry in case there’s a consolidation and correction toward 0.7365 within the next two trading sessions.
By Jack Huyn
Please be informed that information I provide is for educational purposes only and not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from utilising methods believed to be reliable, but I cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.