So Macron is a few steps away from being the French President. Opinion polls are already placing him 30% ahead of Le Pen in the coming May run off and with this, the Euro jumped. It was an inverse situation though for the Precious metal has it loosed $20 as the markets opened, trading as low as $1265 in the NY session as Safe haven liquidation happened and as the Euro and establishments breath a sign of relieve. This was something that was widely anticipated by the markets even though by Thursday last week, polls indicated that there was a tough competition between the leading candidates and somehow, as the markets closed, the Euro continued to trend lower. Looking at this, the USD and Yen trended lower. News like this will go a long way in strengthening the Eurozone markets and in particular the stock markets which were dipping and could be worse if Le Pen won and a referendum to pull out of the single bloc market were on the cards.
I will continue to exploit the JPY weakness even though the CAD might be affected with the current oil glut. OPEC is really trying to cut the overall oil supply but the US shale producers are ramping up production and countering the oil cartel’s effort. The likelihood of oil production slowdown is high and this might be extended to the 4th quarter of the year in an effort of stabilizing prices.
Trade as follows with the entry in the 1HR chart and when the gap is almost filled:
Stop Loss: 81.20-just below Wednesday, Thursday and Friday’s Highs
Take Profit: 82.70 and 84.70-Clear resistance zones in the daily chart.
You should also watch out for Kashkari’s speech later in the NY session. He was the only dove in the last FOMC meeting when the Feds decided to hike interest rates.