CAD WEEKLY REVIEW 31 OCT – 04 NOVEMBER

SUMMARY
The previouse week we saw the USDCAD pair gain slightly as the price of crude oil dropped below the $50 per barrel after OPEC failed to implement supply cuts. The beginning of November we didn’t see much data out of Canada. The Canadian dollar had slight losses last week, closing at 1.339. Governor Stephen Poloz had a speech as well this past week. GDP rose 0.2% in August, following a 0.4% increase in July. The loonie traded mostly sideways last week despite all the data that was released from Canada and the US.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY
The Canadian dollar didn’t perform particularly well this past week, with the US dollar rising to an eight month high against the loonie. This is due to data that was released this past week from both the US and Canada. Oil price also affected the performance of the CAD. Crude oil fell after OPEC failed to come to an agreement on how to implement supply cuts. This was due to Iran & Iraq as they failed to agree. Russia has stated that it will not implement any cuts until OPEC establishes as agreement, with talks to resume later on in the month of November.
All these factors affected the CAD currency pairs which resulted in the CAD closing lower against its counter pairs.

COMMITMENT OF TRADERS forex.today

USDCAD
-Slight decrease in long & short positions
-Weekly price close increased
-Net noncommerical positions decreased

FUNDAMENTALS
SUMMARY

The Canadian economic calender was considerably busy. We started the week off with the RMPI, Tuesdays key events included the GDP and a speech from BOC Governor Stephen Poloz. Wedneday saw a speech by Governing Council Member Wilkins, Thursday featured another speech from Governor Poloz. Friday concluded with the Employment change, Unemployment Rate, Trade Balance, and Ivey PMI.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCT PRICE INDEX, MONTHLY CHANGEwww.statcan.gc.ca
-IPPI rose 0.4% in September
-Higher prices for energy and petroleum products
-Chemical & chemical products rose in September (+1.0%)

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCT PRICE INDEX, 12 MONTH CHANGEwww.statcan.gc.ca
-IPPI declined 0.5% over 12 months period
-IPPI excluding energy & petroleum products rose 0.2%
-Chemical & chemical products prices fell (-2.1%)

RAW MATERIAL PRICE INDEX, MONTHLY CHANGEwww.statcan.gc.ca
-RMPI decreased by 0.1% after 0.7% decline in August
-Decline in animals & animal products due to an increase in conventional crude oil (+2.4%)
-RMPI excluding crude energy products decreased by 1.6%

RAW MATERIAL PRICE INDEX, 12 MONTH CHANGEwww.statcan.gc.ca
-RMPI fell 1.9% in September
-Prices for crop products fell (-3.5%)

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTSwww.statcan.gc.ca
-GDP rose 0.2% in August, following a 0.4% increase in July
-Output of goods producing industries grew 0.7% in August (Main contributers: mining, quarrying, oil & gas)

BANK OF CANADA (GOVERNOR STEPHEN POLOZ’S SPEECH)www.bankofcanada.ca

Governor Stephen Poloz spoke at an event this past week, and in his speech he highlighted how ” inflation-target renewal helps give certainty in uncertain times.” In his speech he said that the inflation targeting agreement between the bank & the federal government has helped Canadians spend & invest with more confidence.

“Twenty-five is the silver anniversary, but inflation targeting has truly been golden,” Governor Poloz said. “As an approach to monetary policy, inflation targeting has proven its worth repeatedly, both in good economic times as well as turbulent ones.”www.bankofcanada.ca

EMPLOYMENT CHANGEwww.bankofcanada.ca

-Employment rose by 44,000 (+0.2%)
-Unemployment rate remained at 7.0%
-Employment increased by 140,000 (+0.8%) in the last 12 months

*Price found resistance just above MM3 @ 1.34 before Fridays close @ 1.339, this is due to traders taking profit.

Price rose to WR1 before dropping just below WM3. For the most part of last week we saw a fight between bulls & bears with neither gaining the upper hand. Price action was between WM3 & WPP before bulls pushed price all the way to 1.34 for profit taking.

Due to fundamentals price reached DR3 before falling to current price @ 1.339. We see a 5 8 cross suggesting that bears were in control just before the market closed on Friday. Interesting to see how market will react on Sunday during Asian open with the next resistance being DPP pivot, and keep in mind we have the US election next week!

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