AFTER A GREAT START TO 2018 THE CANADIAN DOLLAR EXPERIENCED A POOR WEEK. THIS COULD HAVE BEEN BECAUSE INVESTORS ARE PONDERING WHETHER A LOT OF THE GOOD DATA OUT OF CANADA HAS BEEN PRICED IN, AND WHETHER A RATE HIKE NEXT WEEK IS A DONE DEAL. TWO VERY GOOD EMPLOYMENT REPORTS AND A VERY UPBEAT Q4 BUSINESS OUTLOOK SURVEY COULD MEAN THAT WE SEE A RATE HIKE. THE FORECAST STANDS AT 25BP.
THE OTHER REASON FOR CAD WEAKNESS WAS CONCERNS OVER THE RENEGOTIATIONS OF NAFTA BETWEEN THE U.S, CANADA, AND MEXICO. THE SELL OFF CAME AFTER REUTERS RELEASED A REPORT SAYING THAT TRUMP WILL SOON ANNOUNCE THAT THE U.S INTENDS TO PULL OUT OF NAFTA. WE ARE STILL CLUELESS AS TO THE U.S’S TRUE INTENTIONS AND WHAT ECONOMIC IMPACT THE RENEGOTIATIONS MIGHT HAVE ON BOTH COUNTRIES.R

WEEK AHEAD
THE CANADIAN ECONOMIC CALENDAR WILL BE QUIET UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE BOC ANNOUNCES ITS DECISION ON INTEREST RATES. THE BOC WILL ALSO RELEASE THE RATE STATEMENT AND MONETARY POLICY REPORT ON THE SAME DAY. THURSDAY BRINGS ADP NONFARM EMPLOYMENT EXCHANGE AND FRIDAY ENDS THE WEEK WITH FOREIGN SECURITY PURCHASE AND MANUFACTURING SALES (MoM) FOR NOVEMBER. PREVIOUS READING STANDS AT -0.4%, AND THE FORECAST IS 2.0%.

TECHNICALS
CAD HAS BEEN WEEK ACROSS THE BOARD, ONLY SHOWING SIGNS OF LITTLE STRENGTH AGAINST THE USD. THE DAILY CHARTS BELOW SHOW THAT SOME PAIRS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR MONTHLY TARGETS. H4 CHARTS BEING AT KEY LEVELS SHOW THAT THEY ARE SETUP FOR SOME CAD STRENGTH. WTI CRUDE OIL CLOSED AT 64.22 JUST ABOVE MR2, AN AREA THAT BULLS CANNOT BUY, BEARS HOWEVER MIGHT LOOK FOR OPPORTUNITIES TO SELL. IF WTI CRUDE FALLS THAN MAYBE USDCAD TURNS BULLISH. I HAVE ADDED CAD CROSSES BELOW JUST TO GIVE AN IDEA OF WHERE PRICES ARE AND WHERE PRICES MIGHT GO NEXT WEEK.

WTICrude DAILY

MARKET IS BULLISH, 21 ABOVE THE 55. PRICE IS BULLISH AND HAS BROKEN THROUGH THE PIVOTS. STOCHASTICS IS OVERBOUGHT. DEFINITELY WAIT FOR A REVERSAL PATTERN HERE.

WTICrude H4

MARKET IS BULLISH. PRICE CURRENTLY AT WR3 RESISTANCE. YOU COULD SAY THAT IS A DOUBLE TOP AND WAIT FOR A LOWER LOW AND LOWER HIGH TO SELL. IF THAT HAPPENS THAN MAYBE WE CAD WEAKNESS.

USDCAD DAILY

MARKET IS BEARISH, 55 ABOVE THE 21. PRICE IS ALSO BEARISH. IT BOUNCED OFF THE 21 DYNAMIC RESISTANCE AND 38.2 FIB. WITH THE RATE HIKE NEXT WEEK, THIS COULD GO EITHER WAY.

USDCAD H4

PRICE HEADING BACK TO CENTRAL PIVOT AFTER HITTING WM4. PRICE COULD BE PRINTING A DOUBLE BOTTOM. STOCHASTICS IS ABOUT TO BE OVERSOLD.

AUDCAD DAILY

LOOKS LIKE THE OLD MAN IS ABOUT TO TAKE HIS BATH. A DOUBLE BOTTOM FOLLOWED BY A HIGHER LOW AND A HIGHER HIGH. TECHNICALLY IT LOOKS LIKE ITS HEADING UP WHICH MEANS CAD WEAKNESS.

AUDCAD H4

MARKET IS BULLISH. PRICE HIT WR2 AND PULLED BACK TO SUPPORT IDENTIFIED BY THE GREEN BAR. A BULL CAN LOOK AT THIS AS A HIGHER LOW.

CADCHF DAILY

STUCK IN A RANGE. PRICE IS BEARISH AND STOCHASTICS HEADING SOUTH. SUPPORT AT MM2. MAYBE BEARS KEEP PUSHING DOWN.

CADCHF H4

THIS PAIR DIDN'T REACH ITS WEEKLY TARGET BECAUSE OF THE SUPPORT CLUSTER OF WS1 AND MPP. WE HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHICH PIVOT PRICE OPENS AT. BUT AT SUPPORT PROBABLY MEANS BULLS WILL BUY.

CADJPY DAILY

MARKET IS SIDEWAYS. PRICE IS BEARISH. MM4 SELL OFF ALL THE WAY MM2. STOCHASTIC STILL SAYS PRICE MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER DOWN.

CADJPY H4

AFTER THE SELL OFF AT WM3 PRICE HIT THE BEARISH TARGET. CURRENTLY AT SUPPORT, BULLS WILL PROBABLY GO LONG.

EURCAD DAILY

MARKET IS SIDEWAYS. PRICE IS BULLISH. CURRENT RESISTANCE IS AT MM3. STOCHASTICS FACING NORTH.

EURCAD H4

PRICE IS AT WR2 RESISTANCE WHICH COINCIDES WITH MM3. A BULL WILL LOOK FOR A PULL BACK TO RE-ENTER.

GBPCAD DAILY

MARKET IS SIDEWAYS EVEN THOUGH 21 IS ABOVE THE 55. PRICE IS HEADING UP. STOCHASTICS INDICATES A FURTHER UPWARD MOVE.

GBPCAD H4

PRICE IS AT WR2 RESISTANCE AND ITS THE PROFIT TAKING ZONE. PIVOT POINT THEORY SAYS BACK TO THE CENTRAL.

NZDCAD DAILY

LOOKS LIKE THE BEGINNING OF AN UPTREND. PRICE IS MOVING IN A CHANNEL. 21 AND 55 ARE STARTING TO DIVERGE WITH THE 21 BEING ABOVE THE 55. STOCHASTIC IS OVERBOUGHT.

NZDCAD H4

MARKET IS BULLISH, 21 ABOVE THE 55. IMMEDIATE SUPPORT IDENTIFIED BY THE GREEN BAR.

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