FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY.

The highlight of the week was the us Presidential election on Tuesday 8 Nov.As markets were expecting an easy victory of Clinton and had priced it in, we went through a Topsy- turfy day when it became clear that Trump would win.
At first funds were pushed all over without clear direction.But as results came in, and as it s the case when market go through uncertainty, funds were move into safe havens GOLD and Japanese YEN that rallied.
Commodity dollars(including AUD) ,US stock , USD, and the benchmark US T-note treasury yield , AUSTRALIA 10-year bond lost ground.

The Dust did not take long to settle, as early as Thursday 10 Nov it seemed that investors quickly came to term with a TRUMP presidency.
Australia 10 year bond started going up but it was out weighted by the gain in the US treasury yield and the strength of Dixy. Gold and JPY gradually lost some of the early gains.

IMPACT OF TRUMP VICTORY ON AUD AND WHY I M BEARISH ON AUD. www.news.com.au
TRUMP’s protectionist campaign rhetoric and promises if kept would lead to Global trade instability.In fact he promised to revise trade terms with China by increasing custom tariffs and to withdraw from agreements like TPP( trans Pacific Partnership).
Australia would adversely be affected firstly, because it ‘s an open Economy with a high trade exposure(export =21% of GDP)and also because Australia is a proxy of China.
Other fundamentalsthat negatively affected AUD
China: Export -7.3% < -6%
Import -1.4% < -1%
Trade balance 49.06B0.8–> positive news

NEXT WEEK ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Monday
china: Industrial Production and Retail sales
Tuesday
RBA governor Lowe speaks
Wednesday
AUSTRALIA:Wages price index (QoQ and YoY)
Thursday
AUSTRALIA:
Employment change(Oct)
Full Employment Change(Oct)
Unemployment Rate (Oct)

TECHNICAL SUMMARY . Please refer to charts below.

AUDUSD DAILY 13 NOV 16

As i said last week the pair was trading within a narrow range and in an ascending triangle. I predicted the break of the range and triangle would occur after the US Presidential elections. Surprisingly Trump 's election lead for reasons mentioned above to a gain in USD. The pair dropped from resistance MM4 and broke the triangle and the support MPP. 21 and 55 Emas are converging which could indicate a change in the bullish market . 5 ema below 8 indicating a negative price action . i m expecting a retest of the resistance level MPP from which i will sell. (target MS2)

AUDUSD H4 13 NOV 16

21 ema below 55 -->bearish market. 5 ema below 8 --> negative price action. Pair dropped WM4 to WS2. stochastic oversold I m going to wait for price to come back to the bear fib zone , then sell the pair , target fib level 1.382

AUDUSD H1 13 NOV 16

21 ema below 55--> bearish market 5 ema below 8 --> negative price action. stochastic oversold will wait for price to go back to 21 Ema before i sell, and if smaller time frame show lower lows.

One thought on “AUSSIE DOLLAR WEEKLY REVIEW 7-11 NOVEMBER 2016 and Weekly Preview 14-18 November 2016”

  1. Ryan Gandalf van Jaarsveld says:

    Thanks Jules – what are your thoughts on next week’s economic data releases and the impact it could have on Aussie – is there anything the RBA will be looking at and what does that mean for future rate decisions? Also what are your thoughts on AUD crosses?

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