The Aud/Usd pair has been operating within a price wedge as indicated on my daily chart, A breakout to either side is expected, as the wedge is beginning to tighten, and there is important news coming out this week for both currencies. We have the Australian interest rate decision as well as the RBA minutes coming out Tuesday, along with retail sales out Friday. We have a large sum of American news coming out throughout the week, including news in relation to monetary policy, and employment. We do have a larger sum of net non-commercial long positions than we do short positions, as shown by the cot report as of the 25th Oct (http://forex.today/the-commitment-of-traders-report-total-non-hedging-fx-open-positions/), so I will remain cautious with my entry. My bias is bearish on this pair, due to current dollar strength. My bias is subject to change however should news events not turn out to be positive for the dollar.

As shown by the arrows on the outer rims of the wedge, price is making higher lows, and lower highs, and price is coming closer to the tip of the wedge, where a breakout is expected.

as shown on my h4 chart, price has made a higher high, a higher low, another higher high, leading to a double bottom at wm2-0.7591 price. price has failed to make a higher high from here, thereby forming a lower high, and leading us to a break of 0.7591 support, leading to a lower low. we have further confirmation of a change in short term trend shown by the crossing of the 21 ma and 55 ma to the downside.

Should price continue to retrace, I will look for an entry in between 0.7667 and 0.7639. This is a space in my fib zone, in between the 50 and 61.8 level, it is also in an area of potential resistance as shown by the arrows to the left of my entry zone.

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