A. WEEKLY REVIEW
1 Fundamental summary
This week the pair was bullish , not only because comdolls took advantage of a weaker USD that was triggered by the reopening of CLINTON emails investigation , but also mainly because Aussie dollar strengthened after RBA decided to keep its cash rate unchanged .
Other fundamental Datas that added to Aussie ‘s strength :
a)In china the NIKKEI MANUFACTURING ,the MANUFACTURING as well as the NON MANUFACTURING PMI came out higher than expected.
b)Commodity prices printed 16.0 > the 3.9 expected.
c)Export 2% > 0% expected.
Import -1% < 0% expected
TRADE BALANCE WAS POSITIVE
D) Retail sales for September was 0.6 > 0.5 expected even if the quarter figure was negative(-0.1 < 0.3 expected) .
2 Technical summary.
The range in which the pair has been trading since last week is narrowing , we can therefore observe that the pair is in an ascending triangle like shown on the charts there is less bears , bulls are gradually taking lead .
nevertheless,at the end of the week , the pair failed to break the resistance due to possitive NFP from US and negative quarterly Retail sales.
B WEEKLY PREVIEW
1 Fundamental summary.
The pair will be hugely influenced by the outcome on Tuesday of US presidential elections , because Trump is perceive as unpredictable by investors AUSSIE dollar will be stronger in the event he wins.
All the same we will see a stronger USD if Clinton wins.
My bias will be neutral until the result of the US elections, i will be aAUD bear if Clinton wins and a bull if Trump wins.
Other important FUNDAMENTAL DATAS that will impact AUDUSD:
Tuesday
China trade balance, export and import , positive reading would be favorable for AUD , Australia being China’s PROXY.
Wednesday
China CPI and PPI , positive reading would strengthen AUD
THRUSDAY
Australia housing finance and home loans , housing sector being part of sectors carefully watched by the RBA for its monetary policy decisions, positive reading will also here be advantageous for AUD.
2.Technical summary.
please refer to charts below.