A. WEEKLY REVIEW
1 Fundamental summary
This week the pair was bullish , not only because comdolls took advantage of a weaker USD that was triggered by the reopening of CLINTON emails investigation , but also mainly because Aussie dollar strengthened after RBA decided to keep its cash rate unchanged .
Other fundamental Datas that added to Aussie ‘s strength :
a)In china the NIKKEI MANUFACTURING ,the MANUFACTURING as well as the NON MANUFACTURING PMI came out higher than expected.
b)Commodity prices printed 16.0 > the 3.9 expected.
c)Export 2% > 0% expected.
Import -1% < 0% expected
TRADE BALANCE WAS POSITIVE
D) Retail sales for September was 0.6 > 0.5 expected even if the quarter figure was negative(-0.1 < 0.3 expected) .
2 Technical summary.
The range in which the pair has been trading since last week is narrowing , we can therefore observe that the pair is in an ascending triangle like shown on the charts there is less bears , bulls are gradually taking lead .
nevertheless,at the end of the week , the pair failed to break the resistance due to possitive NFP from US and negative quarterly Retail sales.
B WEEKLY PREVIEW
1 Fundamental summary.
The pair will be hugely influenced by the outcome on Tuesday of US presidential elections , because Trump is perceive as unpredictable by investors AUSSIE dollar will be stronger in the event he wins.
All the same we will see a stronger USD if Clinton wins.
My bias will be neutral until the result of the US elections, i will be aAUD bear if Clinton wins and a bull if Trump wins.
Other important FUNDAMENTAL DATAS that will impact AUDUSD:
China trade balance, export and import , positive reading would be favorable for AUD , Australia being China’s PROXY.
China CPI and PPI , positive reading would strengthen AUD
Australia housing finance and home loans , housing sector being part of sectors carefully watched by the RBA for its monetary policy decisions, positive reading will also here be advantageous for AUD.
please refer to charts below.