A. WEEKLY REVIEW

1 Fundamental summary

This week the pair was bullish , not only because comdolls took advantage of a weaker USD that was triggered by the reopening of CLINTON emails investigation , but also mainly because Aussie dollar strengthened after RBA decided to keep its cash rate unchanged .

Other fundamental Datas that added to Aussie ‘s strength :

a)In china the NIKKEI MANUFACTURING ,the MANUFACTURING as well as the NON MANUFACTURING PMI came out higher than expected.
b)Commodity prices printed 16.0 > the 3.9 expected.
c)Export 2% > 0% expected.
Import -1% < 0% expected
TRADE BALANCE WAS POSITIVE

D) Retail sales for September was 0.6 > 0.5 expected even if the quarter figure was negative(-0.1 < 0.3 expected) .

2 Technical summary.
The range in which the pair has been trading since last week is narrowing , we can therefore observe that the pair is in an ascending triangle like shown on the charts there is less bears , bulls are gradually taking lead .

nevertheless,at the end of the week , the pair failed to break the resistance due to possitive NFP from US and negative quarterly Retail sales.

B WEEKLY PREVIEW

1 Fundamental summary.
The pair will be hugely influenced by the outcome on Tuesday of US presidential elections , because Trump is perceive as unpredictable by investors AUSSIE dollar will be stronger in the event he wins.
All the same we will see a stronger USD if Clinton wins.
My bias will be neutral until the result of the US elections, i will be aAUD bear if Clinton wins and a bull if Trump wins.

Other important FUNDAMENTAL DATAS that will impact AUDUSD:
Tuesday
China trade balance, export and import , positive reading would be favorable for AUD , Australia being China’s PROXY.
Wednesday
China CPI and PPI , positive reading would strengthen AUD
THRUSDAY
Australia housing finance and home loans , housing sector being part of sectors carefully watched by the RBA for its monetary policy decisions, positive reading will also here be advantageous for AUD.

2.Technical summary.
please refer to charts below.

The pair is in an ascending triangle , there is less and less bear . 21 EMA still above 55 indicating a bullish market . 5 EMA also above 8 indicating positive price action. if the outcome of US presidential elections is in favor of H.Clinton scenario 1 is to be considered and we will see a strong USD and the pair will be bearish and break the triangle on the low side.

The pair failed to brake through resistance on Friday for fundamental reasons mentioned above.price is falling . Market still bullish with 21 ema above 55.. 5and 8 ema are flats. direction of the pair will be determined by the US presidential elections. scenario 1 to be considered if H.Clinton wins and the pair will be bearish . scenario 2 if Trump wins , pair will then be bullish and AUD stronger

The pair is currently sitting DPP , at support , it will break the support if H.Clinton wins , we will than see a strong USD and the pair will be bearish. If Trump wins scenario 2 is to be considered and AUD will be strong the pair will be Bullish

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