Previous week:
Last week the pair was bullish at the beginning of the week for 2 reasons:
firstly , being in the middle of earning season the value of US TREASURY yield has an impact on the us currency value,at the yield value dropped at the beginning of the week and USD was still under the pressure from Fed chair J.Yellen dovish comment the previous week( she said fed may allow economy to run hot suggesting no interest rate change) .

Secondly in Australia RBA minutes suggested that it was ready to end what called ” interest rate cycle” , and stop interest rate cuts by the end of the month if CPI (cosumer inflation rate was not so high). this minute had as consequence the strenghning of AUD. According to RBA the growth in overall economy should support employement and gradually increase wages and inflation. until then RBA is gonna hold it s interest rate at current level.

the second half of the week the pair became bearish on one hand due to negatif job report from Australia which could lead to RBA intervening on interest rate.
and on the other hand the USDollar strenghten because of positif datas of building Permits and hawkish comment fron fed vice chair S.Fischer as well as fed member W.Dudley.

outlook for next week :
the pair should stay under pressure because of rising US treasury yield and most important datas for the week are CPI (Australia) and advanced GDP (USA).
expectations are rise in CPI and GDP which would lead to a futher bearish move.


the pair as been in a range last week. At first it was rising and start falling thursday. Market direction shown by 212 and 55 EMA still bullish but converging indicating a fall in the bullish trend. price action also indicates fall in the bullish trend with 5 EMA going under 8 EMA. the pair is going toward the bottom of the range.


21 and 55 EMAs are converving ,indicating a slowing of bullish trend . but 21 still above 55. Price action already bearish with 5 ema under 8 ema . it is important to notice that price has broken a support level as shown on chart i m waiting for a retest of the role reversal level to sell the pair again.


market direction is bearish here 21 ema under 55. price action equally bearish 5 ema under 8 ema. i m just waiting for retest of resistence to sell the pair. having my eye on lower time frame . expecting a 123 on 5 min chart before pulling the trigger. (see 5 min chart)


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