The AUD/USD has increased aggressively today and looks determined to try to break above an important dynamic resistance, the rate was driven higher by the fundamental factors. The rebound was somehow expected because the US dollar index has slipped lower, technically, the index is expected to drop further in the coming days and will force the greenback to decrease versus its rivals, the USDX could approach the 97.58 static support, where he may find strong demand again. The USDX maintains a bullish perspective on the short term despite the minor correction, this retreat was expected after the impressive rally.
The Aussie has increased sharply also because the Reserve Bank of Australia has maintained the Cash Rate on hold, at 1.50%, the rate remains steady after the previous decrease from August 2. The Australian Commodity Prices have increased by 16.0% in October, have increased sharply after the 3.9% growth from September. The Aussie has received a helping hand also from the AIG Manufacturing Index, which has increased from 49.8 to 50.9 points.
The Australian Dollar has edged higher versus the other major currencies also because the Chinese economic data have come in better, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI has increased by 50.1 points to 51.2 points, has come much better compared to the 50.2 estimate, while the Manufacturing PMI rose from 50.4 to 51.2 points, the Non-Manufacturing PMI has increased from 53.7 to 54.0 points.
We’ll see how the rate will react after the United States economic figures will be released, the ISM Manufacturing PMI may increase from 51.5 to 51.8 points October, while the ISM Manufacturing Prices could increase from 53.0 to 54.0 points. The US is to release also the Total Vechicle Sales which could increase from 17.8M to 17.5M, a disappointment today will send the greenback tumbling.

AUDUSDd

The price has edged higher aggressively and has managed to jump above the 50% Fibonacci line again, could approach the upper median line (uml) of the major descending pitchfork, we’ll see how the rate will react when the price will hit this level, you can see that the rate has failed to break above this major resistance in the previous attempts. I’ve said in my previous articles that the perspective remains bullish on the medium term as long as the rate is trading inside the ascending pitchfork’s body. The medium term rebound will resume only if the rate will jump and will stabilize above the upper median line (uml), but I want to remind you that another rejection will force the rate to reach the lower median line (LML) of the ascending pitchfork.

AUDUSDh

The rate has increased sharply and looks determined to reach fresh new highs till the end of the day, but we’ll have to be careful during the release of the US data because we may have some volatility. Personally I would like to see a minor retreat on the H4 chart, will be better if the rate will come down to retest the 50% Fibnacci line before will try to break above the upper median line (uml).

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