The AUD/USD has managed to increase sharply in the fresh start of this week, has reached fresh new highs and could increase even higher in the coming days if the buyers will have enough to consolidate the latest gains. The Aussie remains fir after the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes release, but the pair could drop again as the USDX looks determined to increase again on the short term, the index as edged higher in the last two hours and has jumped above the 94.00 level. The Australian House Price Index has decreased by 0.2% in the first quarter, has decreased surprisingly because the traders have expected to see a 0.8% increase, the economic calendar has reached the lowest level after may 2012, the AUD/USD stay higher, but a rejection today could open the door for more declines in the coming period, the rate is challenging a strong resistance level and could fail to stay higher. The USD has increased during the FED Chairwoman speech, Yellen has testified at the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington DC, the Federal Reserve remains cautious with regard to interest rate hike, personally I don’t think that will see a rate increase in July, because I don’t think that the economic data will come goo enough in the coming weeks to be able to force the FED to the this move. Remains to see what will happen after the Brexit referendum, the rate increase could come if the UK will stay in the EU after 23 June, the greenback is losing ground again versus its rivals, maybe the traders were disappointed after Yellen’s testimony.
The FOMC Member Powell will speak later tonight, maybe this fundamental event will bring life on the major pairs, the USDX remains under selling pressure, a dovish speech could harm the USD even more and could send the USDX much lower again.

The price is pressuring the median line of the ascending pitchfork, remains to see if the buyers will have enough power to maintain the rate above the dynamic resistance, otherwise the price could drop again if will close somewhere below yesterday’s high from 0.7480 level. A rejection here will attract more sellers, which will lead the price down again on the short term, personally I’m waiting for a strong selling signal right now if the price will stay below the median line (ml) and if will test the confluence area formed at the intersection of the median line with the upper median line of the descending pitchfork. The rate is struggling to increase further after the jump above the 0.7382 level, the price has increased above the previous high from 0.7503, but as I’ve said, the rate could decrease again if the median median line (ml) will hold.

You can see on the H4 chart that the rate has failed to stay above the median line of the Daily ascending pitchfork, the price could drop inside the minor descending pitchfork if the USDX will have enough energy to increase further in the coming hours.

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Olimpiu Tuns

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