AUDUSD recently surged past the .7350 minor psychological resistance, which has served as a barrier towards the end of last month. Price topped out around .7420 and is showing signs of a pullback to the broken resistance.
This potential area of interest lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which might hold as support. A larger pullback could last until the 61.8% Fib, which coincides with the .7300 major psychological level and the moving averages. The 100 SMA is starting to cross above the longer-term 200 SMA, suggesting that further gains are likely.
In addition, stochastic is showing a bullish divergence since the oscillator made lower lows while price drew higher lows. RSI, on the other hand, is still on the move down and suggesting that a larger correction is set to take place.
Earlier this week, data from Australia came in better than expected, with retail sales and trade figures both beating forecasts. Consumer spending picked up by 0.7% versus the 0.5% consensus in June while the May figure was upgraded from 0.3% to 0.4%. Meanwhile, the trade balance showed a smaller than expected 2.93 billion AUD deficit, although this is larger compared to the previous month’s 2.68 billion AUD shortfall.
Other event risks for this setup include the release of the ADP non-farm employment change data today, which might show a slower pace of employment growth in the US. Analysts are expecting to see a 216K increase, down from the previous 237K gain.
A weaker than expected ADP report could set the tone for a disappointing NFP reading for July, which is up for release on Friday. If so, traders could start pricing in lower odds of a Fed rate hike in September, as FOMC officials said that they are waiting for further improvements in hiring to decide whether or not they should start tightening monetary policy.