AUDUSD has broken below its mid-range area of interest and is now aiming for the bottom around the .6950 minor psychological level. A test of this support could yield either a bounce or a break, with technical indicators suggesting that bearish momentum is in play.
The 100 SMA is safely below the longer-term 200 SMA, which means that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In that case, a break of support could yield at least 400 pips in losses since this is the same height as the rectangle pattern.
Stochastic and RSI are both pointing down, also confirming that sellers are in control of price action at this point. However, a bounce off the range support could spur a move back to the resistance at .7350 or at least until the middle at .7150.
Last week, NFP data from the US led to a strong dollar rally since the results came in much better than expected. This supported expectations of a Fed interest rate hike in December, as FOMC policymakers have mentioned that they’re just waiting to see more evidence of growth in the jobs market before giving the green light for tightening.
Meanwhile, the Aussie is currently being weighed down by downbeat trade data from China. While the surplus was wider than that of the previous month, underlying components revealed a drop in exports and a much sharper decline in imports. This spells downbeat prospects for Australia’s commodity shipments, particularly that of iron ore.
Event risks for this AUDUSD setup this week include inflation figures from China and employment data from Australia. Strong figures could keep the Australian currency supported and inside the range while dismal readings could serve as catalysts for a downside break. US retail sales could prop up the dollar once more if the actual results are strong.