The AUD/USD increased today and maintains a bullish perspective on the short term, has come down to test and retest an important dynamic support and now edges higher as the greenback is demolished by the USDX’s decrease. Price continues to move sideways on the long term, has developed a major symmetrical triangle and most likely will resume the narrow movement on the medium term.
Technically is somehow expected to increase further in the upcoming period, despite the last week’s minor decrease. USDX dropped significantly after FED’s Harker signalled that the slowing inflation could force the Federal Reserve to postpone another rate hike, the USD bears have stepped in again after this testimony and could lead the currency much lower versus all its rivals, not only against the Aussie.
The USDX is trading in the red and looks motivated to approach and reach the 95.45 previous low in the upcoming hours, a further drop will demolish the greenback, which will lose significant ground versus its rivals. We may still have a Falling Wedge pattern on the USDX, but only if will stay somewhere above the 95.40 level, could come down to test and retest a major dynamic support, a rejection will confirm a larger increase and a USD dominance.
The Aussie increased on the mixed Australian data, the Home Loans have increased by 1.0% in May, but less versus the 1.5% estimate, however, has increased sharply after the 1.9% drop in the previous reading period, while the NAB Business Confidence increased from 8 to 9 points in the last month.
On the other hand, the USD wasn’t inspired by the United States data, has received support only from the Final Wholesale Inventories indicator, which increased by 0.4% in May, more versus the 0.3% estimate and versus the 0.3% growth in the former reading period. Unfortunately, the JOLTS Job Openings have dropped more than expected, from 5.97M to 5.67M level, even if the trades have expected to see an increase to 5.98M, moreover the NFIB Small Business Index dropped from 104.5 to 103.6 points, much below the 104.4 estimate.


Price rallies and climbed above the sliding line (SL) of the major descending pitchfork, could hit the 0.7637 static resistance in the upcoming hours, a valid breakout above this level will attract more buyers, which will lead the rate towards fresh new highs in the upcoming period. The next major upside target remains at the upper median line (uml) of the ascending pitchfork, we have a major resistance also at the 0.7755 static resistance. Technically is expected to increase after the retest of the median line (ml) of the ascending pitchfork, we had a buying opportunity after the failure to close on the median line (ml).


I've added the H4 chart, where you can see much better the price action, is challenging the 0.7637 static resistance, we may have a buying opportunity if will make a minor consolidation above this obstacle.

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