The AUD/USD has managed to increase again today, has jumped above the yesterday’s high, but the rate has retreated a little even if the US dollar index continues to slide, the index has reached fresh new lows, has erased the yesterday’s gains and could drop even deeper because looks very heavy, the USDX has dropped even if the United States economic data have beaten the expectations, unfortunately the USD remains under massive selling pressure, could depreciate further versus the other major currencies.
The Australian data have come surprisingly better today, the Unemployment Rate has dropper from 5.8% to 5.7% in July, has reached again the 5.7% level after just one month increase, the rate is at the lowest level after July 2014, the Aussie has edged higher in the early morning as the economic data have come much better, moreover the Employment Change has increased from 10.8K to 26.2K, the indicator has increased unexpectedly, the traders have expected to see drop to 10.2K.
The AUD/USD has decreased a little in the last hours because the United States Unemployment Claims have dropped from 26K to 262K in the previous week, have come better versus the 269K estimate, the Initial Claims have dropped again after just one week increase, while the Philly fed Manufacturing Index has increased from -2.9 points to 2.0 points, have exceeded the 1.4 prediction. The CB Leading Index has increased by 0.4%, exceeding the 0.3% estimate, has increased by 0.1% compared to the previous reading period, has reached the highest level of the last 3-months, the greenback has increased a little, but most likely will drop again because I don’t believe that will have enough energy to rebound.

The rate maintains a bullish perspective because is still located above the median line (ML) of the ascending pitchfork, but also above the 0.7637 static support. You can see that the price has found strong resistance right below the 50% Fibonacci line (ascending dotted line), has failed to retest this level, has failed also to close near the second warning line (wl2) of the previous descending pitchfork, so the short retreat was expected. The AUD/USD needs to climb above the warning line (wl2) if he wants to resume the upward movement, we’ll have a good buying opportunity if the rate will stabilize above the dynamic resistance, but only if the price will come to retest the wl2 and the median line of the major ascending pitchfork, we have a strong confluence area there, so we could buy the retest of this area.

I’ve added the H4 chart to show you better the price action on the short term, you can notice that the price has found strong resistance at the 50% Fibonacci line and then has started to make lower highs and lower lows, I’ve also added a minor descending pitchfork (drawn with red), you can see that the upper median line of this pair represents a very strong resistance on the short term, the rate could drop on the short term as long the dynamic resistance holds.

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