AUD/USD maintains a bearish perspective December 13, 2016

The AUD/USD has increased today and has managed to reach fresh new highs, has jumped much above the yesterday’s high, but maintain a bearish perspective after a crucial breakout. Right now we have a throwback movement, but this rebound could be only temporary if the USDX will increase again, the index has increased a little today but remains under pressure. We’ll have a clear direction after tomorrow’s FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting, the FED is expected to raise the Federal Funds rate from 0.50% to 0.75%, so the USD should increase again on the short to medium term, but remains to see what will really happen, the event will bring life on the currency market, so you should be very careful not to suffer a significant loss. However a disappointment will force the USD to drop aggressively versus the other major currencies.
The currency pair has increased in the first part of the day as the Australian data have come in mixed, but has decreased aggressively in the last hour even if the US data have disappointed a little, the Import Prices have decreased by 0.3%, matching expectations, the indicator has decreased again after two increasing months, while the NFIB Small Business Index has increased from 94.9 to 98.4 points, beating the 96.7 estimate.
The Aussie has rallied also because the Chinese Industrial Production has increased by 6.2% in November, more versus the 6.1% estimate, has come in better compared to the 6.1% increase from October, the Retail Sales have impressed as well, have surged by 10.8% in November, more than the 10.2% forecast, the indicator has increased further after the 10.0% growth from the previous period. Moreover the Chinese Fixed asset Investment has increased by 8.3%, actually has remained steady at 8.3% growth.
The Australian HPI has increased only by 1.5%, less than the 2.6% estimate, has increased less also versus the 2.0% growth from the previous month, while the NAB Business Confidence has increased from 4 to 5 points.

AUDUSD

The rate has increased, but has failed once again to reach and retest the lower median line (LML) of the ascending pitchfork, we’ll see how will react tomorrow during and after the FOMC meeting, maybe will be better to stay away from trading tomorrow night because most likely we’ll have a high volatility. Technically the rate should drop further after the breakout from the ascending pitchfork’s body, could drop also because is losing the bullish momentum, has failed to touch the LML again, signalling that could drop, but as I’ve said higher, the rate will be driven by the fundamental factors in the coming days.

AUDUSDd

The price has managed to climb again above the median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork, has retested the broken dynamic resistance and now cold increase a little, but remains to see the direction after tomorrow’s events, the greenback will take the lead again if the FED will decide to take action.