The AUD/USD has increased significantly in the early morning, but the sellers have stepped in again and have forced the rate to decrease again. Price remains under selling pressure on the short term after a false breakout, could decrease further in the coming period if the US dollar index will have enough energy to jump and to stabilize above the 102.00 psychological level. The pair is losing altitude as the USDX has managed to stay higher despite the poor United States economic data.
The USDX maintains a bullish perspective on the short term, a further increase will help the greenback to appreciate further versus its rivals, the dollar is somehow expected to increase further if the US data will continue to come better, everyone is waiting for the FOMC upcoming meeting from March 15, as you already know, the Federal Reserve could increase the interest rate in the next monetary policy meeting. Personally, I don’t believe that the FED will hike the rate in March 15, I think that the FED will wait for more positive data before will take action.
The United States economic data have disappointed today, but the greenback stays higher, the Trade Balance has come in worse today, the trade deficit has increased from 44.3B to 48.5B in January, beating the 47.0B estimate, the trade deficit has reached the highest level after May 2015, but the dollar wasn’t too impressed. Moreover the Consumer Credit has decreased from 14.8B to 8.8B, even if the traders have expected to see an increase to 19.1 points.
The Aussie has increased in the early morning as the Reserve Bank of Australia has maintained the Cash Rate on hold at 1.50%, matching expectations, the rate wasn’t changed since August 2016. The RBA is expected to maintain the rate steady in the coming period as the Governor Philip Lowe is optimistic on the Australia’s economic growth. The AIG Construction Index has increased sharply from 47.7 points to 53.1 points signalling that the expansion continues in the construction sector.

AUDUSDdaily

The rate has increased today, but has failed to reach the 0.7637 static resistance and the upper median line (UML) of the major descending pitchfork, is located below the upper median line (uml) of the minor ascending pitchfork, should drop further in the coming period if will stay below these levels. Technically is somehow expected to drop further after the failure to close above the outside sliding parallel line (descending dotted line), the next downside target could be at the median line (ml) of the minor ascending pitchfork, could find support also at the 0.7440 static support and at the first warning line (wl1) of the former ascending pitchfork.

AUDUSDh4

I've added a minor descending pitchfork on the H4 chart, the rate has come back inside this pitchfork's body, but has failed to close right on the median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork, signalling that he could drop again.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.