The AUD/USD continues to decrease even if the Australian economic data have come mixed in the early morning, the US dollar remains strong after the FOMC rate decision and could jump much higher on the short term if the US economic data will come in line with expectations or better. The USDX continues to increase on the short term and could approach he yesterday’s high if the bulls will hold the lines. The USDX has edged higher in the last 4 hours and have erased the morning losses, the USD could increase further if the USDX will manage to jump above the 95.00 psychological level.
USD is increasing somehow surprisingly because the Federal reserve has maintained the rate on hold, at 0.50%, the traders were disappointed buy are still optimistic that the FED will increase the rate twice till the end of the year.
The Aussie wasn’t impressed by the Australian data, the Unemployment Rate has remained steady at 5.7% for the third month in May, while the Employment Change has increased from 0.8K to 17.9K, exceeding the 14.9K estimate. Moreover the New Motor Vehicle has decreased by 1.1% in May, less than the -2.8% drop from April.
The United States inflation data could help the USD to increase further on the short term, the Consumer Price Index could increase by 0.3% in May, less compared to the 0.4% in April, moreover the Core CPI may increase by 0.2%. The Jobless Claims report will be released by the Department of Labor later today, the initial claims could increase again from 264K to 267K in the last week, but the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index could increase to 1.1 points and could send the greenback higher versus all its counterparts. You should keep an eye on the economic calendar today because the calendar is filled with high impact data, the US Current Account could remain steady at -125B in Q1.

The rate is expected to drop because has slipped again below the median line of the descending pitchfork, the bearish movement has fallen again below the 0.7382 level and now could target fresh new lows in the coming days. Right now is very important for the price to stabilize below the median line (ml), could even retest this dynamic resistance before will decrease further. As you can see that the rate has plunged today and have erased the yesterday’s gains, a broader decrease is expected because the rate has failed to reach again the median line (ML) of the ascending pitchfork, has failed also to reach the previous high from 0.7503 level.

The AUD/USD could be attracted by the confluence area formed at the intersection of the lower median line of the daily ascending pitchfork with the lower median line of the descending pitchfork, the rate could drop inside the minor descending pitchfork. The rate could retest even the median line of the descending pitchfork before will drop toward the mentioned confluence area, we’ll have a very good opportunity to go short on this pair if the price will retest the median line (ml) and will stay below this dynamic resistance.

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Olimpiu Tuns

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