The AUD/USD has decreased significantly today and has erased the Friday’s gains, has dropped, but has failed to reach the 0.7618 Friday’s low. The buyers are still in the game and have forced the price to increase again in the last few hours, has managed to climb again above the 0.7650 level and is challenging an important broken resistance. The rate maintains a bullish perspective and could resume the upside movement if the price will stabilize somewhere above the 0.7670 level.
The pair has increased today as the USD was supported by the USDX’s jump, the index has increased a little and has climbed above the 100.00 psychological level, but now has decreased and is challenging the 99.84 static resistance (support has turned into resistance), the greenback could increase on the short term only if the USDX will have enough energy to climb and to stabilize much above the 100.00 psychological level.
The Aussie has dropped in the morning because the Australian data have disappointed, has taken a serious punch from the Australian Retail Sales, which have fallen by 0.1%, despite that the traders have expected a 0.3% increase, the economic indicator has dropped in the negative area again and has weakened the Australian dollar. Moreover the Chinese data have disappointed as well, the Caixin Services PMI has dropped from 53.4 to 53.1, even if the economists have forecasted an increase to 53.6 points. We had some good figures from Australia today, the MI Inflation Gauge rose by 0.6%, more than the 0.5% growth from the previous reading period, while the ANZ Job Advertisements surged by 4.0% in January, the indicator has increased again after the 2.2% drop from December.
The USD has lost ground versus the Aussie in the last hours, even if the US Labor Market Conditions Index was reported at 1.3 points, higher versus the 0.6 in the previous reporting period.
Remains to see what will happen in the early morning because the RBA will publish the Cash Rate, the rate is expected to remain steady at 1.50%, we could have high volatility in the Asian and European trading hours, so you should be careful not to suffer a heavy loss.

The price has decreased today below the upper median line (UML) of the major descending pitchfork and below the lower median line (lml) of the ascending pitchfork, but this decrease could be temporary and the rate could resume the upside movement in the coming days. However the breakout above the upper median line (UML) needs confirmation, so we still have to wait for a fresh signal that the rate will continue to increase. We could have a buying opportunity if the price will test the confluence between the UML with the lower median line (lml) and will stay above this obstacle.

AUDUSDh4-1

Only another false breakout above the upper median line (UML) will attract the sellers again, which will drive the rate much lower, but this scenario is less likely to happen right now. The rate is consolidation right now on the H4 chart, is developing a continuation pattern, so technically should increase further.

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