The AUD/USD has increased significantly in the last
days, has reached fresh new highs today and could jump much higher if the US
dollar index will drop much deeper in the coming days, the pair is trading
right below a major horizontal resistance, we’ll have to wait to see if will
have a breakout or a pullback. The USD has increased a little in the morning,
but the bears have taken the lead again and have erased the morning gains, the
greenback has posted humble gains also right after the Yellen’s speech.

The Aussie has decreased a little in the morning as the Australia’s
MI Inflation gauge has decreased by 0.2% and has reached the lowest level of
the last 3 months, the economic indicator has decreased again after  2 months. The AUD was helped by ANZ Job Advertisements
increase, the indicator has increased by 2.4% and has lifted the Aussie. The
Federal Reserve Chairwoman has announced that the FED will increase the rate
again soon if conditions met. Personally, I don’t think that the FED will raise
the rate in June 15 because I’m not confident that the upcoming economic data
will have the support the rate hike. 

The price is challenging the major resistance area between the
0.7367 and the 0.7382 level and as I’ve said higher, the pair could resume the
short term rebound, is expected to reach the median line of the ascending
pitchfork and the median line of the short descending pitchfork. The current
rebound was somehow expected because the price has found strong support right
above the lower median line of the ascending pitchfork, the price has failed to
retest the lower median line, signaling that the price has lost its bearish momentum
and could increase again on the short term. Another leg lower will come only if
the 0.7382 horizontal resistance will reject the price, another decrease could
come also if the price will fail to jump above the median line of the
descending pitchfork.

The AUD/USD is  expected to retest
the median line of the descending pitchfork, could approach and retest the
median line of the ascending pitchfork only if will ignore the dynamic resistance
from the minor median line (ml). The USD remains under selling pressure as the
USDX is trading much below some important broken support levels, the index has
plunged in Friday’s trading session after the poor NFP. The USDX is expected to
drop much deeper in the coming days, the index is seeking for strong support to
be able to rebound again, a further drop will push the USD much lower.

The pair is trading inside of a short ascending pitchfork, right now
is pressuring the upper median line of this ascending pitchfork, the
perspective remains bullish on the short term if the price will trade above the
minor median line of the minor ascending pitchfork. The Aussie needs to resume
the upward movement in tomorrow’s trading session because otherwise the pair
could lose its bullish momentum and could drop again on the short term. You
should keep an eye on the economic calendar tomorrow because the RBA will
publish the Cash Rate, the rate is expected to remain on hold at 1.75%, this
event could bring some volatility on this pair.

Leave a Reply