Fundamental Summary
Over the past week we received top tier economic data updates on employment change, unemployment rate and the first public speech by the new RBA governor, Philip Lowe.
-In his first speech, He noted why the next CPI print will be vital, as the actual inflation is a key input to inflationary expectations.
– He hinted a cautious approach to further interest cuts.
– Dr Lowe emphasized that current low levels of inflation were not unprecedented in the period and the RBA has been targeting 2-3 per cent annual consumer price increases. He seems to not be bothered by the fact that the inflation rate can be stuck at such low levels for such a long period of time.
– Factors such as commodity prices which have been seeing a fall, for which he believes is coming to an end, labor and housing market data are major keys.
-As His speech continued, It further indicated that rate cuts are more likely than rate hikes
– During the week we saw a worst than expected employment change data for September.
– Unemployment rate was better than the forecasted even though no change was seen.

You can watch His speech here

For weekly Economic report on the Aussie and Kiwi, may you kindly click Here

Technical Analysis
-The green and red long horizontal rectangles are drawn in to show resistance and support lines.
-The green being my support and red being my resistance.
– Bulls look for buy opportunities on the support levels and bears for sell opportunities on resistance levels.
-Bias:Bear

The pair has been seen ranging over the past two months between resistance level of 78.900 and a support level of 76.100. In the beginning of the month price opened on the monthly pivot point, while retracing up from the level of support that was tested twice already. We then saw price hit the monthly bull target of MM4, for which is a significant resistance level, by breaking through the top of the range. A double bottom has formed and we are currently seeing/waiting for a solid confirmation at the role reversal. keep an eye on the Moving Averages. It is eminent that price would bounce of the 21 Moving average for dynamic support.

The markets opened with price above the Weekly Pivot last week. The pair has been on an ascending channel. having had a double top form on this chart, my narrative on the pair is distorted a bit and makes it interesting. My bias in that regard remains to be a bearish bias hoping to see how things turn out during monday's Asian session and beyond. Firstly, should we see more bulls coming in strong breaking the next resistance level of 79.3, I am expecting the pair to be very bullish. secondly, If there is a possibility that it will fail to break and this will be regarded as a role reversal where bears are looking to sell.

On Friday we saw the Japanese Yen strengthen across board. This saw the daily bear target being reached. In that regard we saw a break through the bottom of the range which now acts as resistance. A double top has formed on this chart too. a retest at the role reversal, 79.2 is eminent and a further bearish move will be seen.

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