Hello Traders,
At the back drop of the Feds keeping their interest steady, they revealed some key information which should help shape the trajectory of this pair in the short to medium term. The fact that labor condition is strong if not stellar and within the FMOC range confirms that the economy is quite healthy even if the annualized growth data remains anemic and below 3.0%-the lowest levels reached only in two occasions-once in 1948 and 1980. There are also no inflatory signals really even though the current near Zero Bound Interest rates has sparked some inflation mostly in real estate and in financial assets-and nothing else at least from the recent data gathered. With this assembly of macroeconomic data which carry much weight when the FMOC decided to change interest rates, there is little room for Yellen to wriggle without hastening recession in the coming quarters. If rates rise, then the stock market will begin retracing from these current all time highs and especially now that there are a lot of musings about buying and keeping stock investments as a passive investment from the media which confirms that this is the last stage of the multi year highs if not the tops already.
The key now is to watch out the monthly chart. Since mid 2014, prices moved down spectacularly only to move up to current levels and right now prices has corrected 40% since last year’s lows of 0.61. Remember, at all these levels of key reversals the stochastics in the monthly chart had printed a sell or buy signal at every turn of price and so, last month’s sell signal will likely signal the beginning of a trend lower at least maybe to the end of this year.
Our strategy today is to make entries in the daily chart and align ourselves with a potential down move in the monthly chart for long term traders. For day traders, the daily chart will provide the leading trend and therefore, enter trades in the 15 min chart.
Sell levels in the 15 min charts will be at those resistance levels marked in the chart at 0.7325 or 0.7340. Look to sell ONLY when there is an overbought stochastics and preferably just before NFP ONLY when our sell conditions has been met. Remember, you can consistently beat the market by minimizing the number of trades and therefore stick to the rules.
So today, trade as follows:
Sell Limit: 0.7325
Stop Loss: 0.735
TP: Trail profits with a 1:3 risk reward ratio
Or,
Sell Limit: 0.7340
Stop Loss: 0.737
TP: Trail your profits.
Have a good trading day and a nice weekend.

NZDUSD 15 min Chart-04.11.2016

Source: Dalmas Ngetich

NZDUSD Daily Chart-04.11.2016

Source: Dalmas Ngetich

NZDUSD Monthly Chart-04.11.2016

Source: Dalmas Ngetich

NZDUSD Weekly Chart-04.11.2016

Source: Dalmas Ngetich

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