The Australian economy relies heavily on commodities with 5% of the country’s GDP represented by mining (including energy). Recent weakness in copper prices has weighed on the Aussie though with copper holding at support and a reversal setting up on gold, maybe we are going to see some Aussie strength in the near-term. Note that iron-ore prices have fallen in recent weeks and exports of coking coal are expected to decrease while prices increase temporarily. The RBA have indicated that they do not expect higher commodity prices to add materially to domestic demand, given their temporary nature, though I feel it is still something worth observing and adding to one’s Aussie toolbox.

On Tuesday we get meeting minutes. The May statement on Monetary Policy and Commonwealth Budget show that growth will lift in 2018 and 2019 from the current pace with an improvement in consumer spending, dwelling investment and business investment contributing towards growth. Perhaps the release on Tuesday will further support these forecasts and shed further light on the RBA’s view on the economy and future path of monetary policy.

AUDUSD Daily

Just by looking at the chart we instantly know price is not likely to move lower and that we could see a move to 0.7523 by month end. We do have resistance at 0.7450 and Bears are going to sell at the 21. H4 shows a reversal currently setting itself up.

AUDUSD H4

That's a double bottom at WS1 with a higher high. Our H4 stoch says down though with daily so oversold perhaps it's one more down before we head up to MPP or next week's bullish target. Caution to the wise - gong long AUDUSD would only make sense off a weak Dollar. Price action on the Dollar Index doesn't show a lot of bullishness in the USDollar at the moment especially after last week's soft inflation and consumer spending data. If price reverses as per the technical analysis on Dxy and Gold and Copper start moving higher, perhaps going long AUDUSD could be a good trade. Alternatively paring a strong Aussie with something you are bearish on like Euro would make sense.

EURAUD Daily

According to this chart the market is bullish and price is currently at support. Monthly pivot points are not in play. Our daily stoch has rolled over. H4 shows a slow down in trend

EURAUD H4

Price is making a series of lower lows and lower highs. Price came off the 55 on Friday with resistance eyed at 1.48, 1.4850 and 1.49. The 55 predicts a double top.

GBPAUD Daily

Market is bullish and like other Pound pairs has been moving higher off of short covering since the reversal in March. Price has come off MR1 with a target of MS1. Support eyed at 1.72/ 21 EMA. Stoch is overbought and has rolled over.

GBPAUD H4

That's a double top at 1.7650 with a lower low. Price came off support at last week's WPP/ role reversal at 1.7350 though resistance is eyed at 1.75. If the double top is in play then 1.75 is where Bears are going to sell. The red zone highlights our fib zone. The H4 stoch is currently oversold so taking H4 and daily into consideration short term up, long term down.

Gold Daily

Monthly pivots tell us that price is not likely to move lower. That daily stoch turning up at this price level definitely supports that. Resistance eyed at MS1.

Gold H4

That's a double bottom at the monthly bearish target for May followed by a higher high. Bulls are looking to buy in the fib zone. The H4 stoch says down

Copper Daily

Market is sideways and price has failed to break below the 200 EMA/ MS1 giving Bulls a target of MR1, the top of the range. Daily stoch is oversold and has crossed.

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