If the fed increase rates in December they are only going to increase by 0.25% though the 10Y T-Note yield is above 2.23% – at what point does the market realise that the yield is little high and that any inflation that’s going to come from fiscal action is going to take some time to implement. I don’t know if the market realises this now or in Jan though I was looking at the US 10Y T-Note and noticed a possible double bottom on the H4 chart. I then had a look at the Yen pairs and noticed possible reversal setups there too. The rising 10Y yield has been giving Yen quite a bit of weakness. If we see a drop in a yield then would Yen strength follow? Being 1 month away from the next FOMC meeting maybe we see a correction so the yield is not so overpriced?
Note: The price action mentioned below is observed on hourly charts – if one looks at H4 there is no indication of a change in trend and this could just be profit taking, so therefore this is not a trade recommendation, simply an observation that I am paying attention to. If the trend is reversing then we will know what to look for and if it doesn’t then it’s continue with mission.

US 10Y H4

I have drawn a trend line which needs to be broken for this double bottom to be valid, of course the market could sell at the 21 and we could go lower though this is the first time in a week that we have not made a lower low - up until now price has been falling, USDollar getting strong and Yen getting weak.

USDJPY H1

Is that a head and shoulder with the right shoulder being the current red candle? Price would need to make a lower low below 108.750 though the market is definitely not as bullish as it was yesterday. Maybe bulls enter during Asia at 109 and resume the trend, if so great. If you look at the H4 chart support is identified at 108.500, which is where the H4 21 will be in the future.

AUDJPY H1

Double top, lower high, lower low - though we have not fallen below 81.451 so price could come up from here during Asia and resume the trend or put us range bound between 82.551 and 81.537. If price comes up from market and we are seeing a reversal of trend then bears would look to enter in the fib zone drawn from the lower high to the current low.

EURJPY H1

No reversal pattern though price has made a lower low, currently at the H4 21 - which means we expect to see a higher high - if this is the begining of a change of trend then bears would sell in the fib zone drawn from the recent high to the current low

GBPJPY H1

Possible double top? Support at DPP has not been broken and we have not made a lower low. Should bulls enter during Asia and drive price higher then game on, wait for a pull back to resistance at DM3 and continue trend.

NZDJPY H1

A break of the trend line and a lower low, price at the 55 predicting a double top at DM3 which would also test the previous support trend line as resistance.

2 thoughts on “A bottom on US 10Y? 16 Nov”

  1. Nahomie Laduchesse Namie says:

    Nice Article Ryan

    1. Ryan Gandalf van Jaarsveld says:

      Thanks Nahomie

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