USD BULL – After Jackson Hole the market has started pricing in a possible rate hike in September. Also another rate hike in December, totaling 2 rate hikes before the end of the year, have not been excluded. In order to convince the market we need strong US data next week and in particular strong NFP.

EUR BEAR – EUR is still weak, and the pair EURUSD has been going up because of lack of interest in buying the USD without a rate hike in sight. Since this factor has changed in the equation, now the EUR should start feeling the pressure of bears and the effects of Draghi’s long term monetary policy.

D1 Market is ranging. The EURUSD market is in a range since March 2015. Top of range is about 1.15, bottom is about 1.08, with 3 touches of a lower bottom at about 1.05. During last week price reached 1.135 and started to drop, closing this week at 1.12. There is not a clear trend in place, but I'm waiting for a downtrend to be established inside the main range, and then a break of the range to the downside, consistent with the US and EU central banks policies divergence.

D1 21EMA and 55EMA are decelerated, with low speed and no direction, angle is shallow and separation in little. Price is between 21 and 55.

H4 Price has double topped on H4, spiked during Jackson Hole and then started dropping. Market is down, 21 and 55 are crossing down.

H1 Market is down, 21 and 55 have crossed down, accelerating with widening angle and separation. I'll be looking for opportunities to sell, but after such a strong down move I first need to choose my resistance lines to wait for a probable upside retracement to end. I am waiting for new Weekly Pivots at next week market open to asses static and dynamic levels, lines and layers of support and resistance, and draw the trade plan for the week.

3 thoughts on “160826fr 1700EST EURUSD New York Close Analysis”

  1. victor lew says:

    Miles, nice TSRL (blue trendline) there. Truly divided the daily chart into two zones. Would love to learn more from you. Best.

    1. Miles says:

      Victor what happened to your post “Miles, check this out”, I was writing a comment and then disappeared! Have you removed it?

      1. victor lew says:

        Sorry Miles, i updated my question.:)

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