USD BULL – After Jackson Hole the market has started pricing in a possible rate hike in September. Also another rate hike in December, totaling 2 rate hikes before the end of the year, have not been excluded. In order to convince the market we need strong US data next week and in particular strong NFP.

AUD BEAR - AUD broke 0.73 to the downside in August 2015, exactly one year ago, and since then that level has role reversed and price has been topping between around 0.73 and 0.738, until it broke to the upside again in the beginning of March of this year. Then went down again to 0.716 at the end of May, made a higher low and is has been rising since then. I expect price to go down to the 0.73 area again before going up for the long term.

D1 After a due retracement of the Jackson Hole down move, I expect price to go down to the 0.73 area again before going up for the long term.

H4 I expect price to retrace to the role reversal and then head down.

But also I prepare for a AUD stronger that USD, that would treat the channel as a continuation flag and continue mission to the upside.

H1 My Plan A is to expect a retracement to the 38.2% Fib of the Jackson Hole move, confluent with previous support that I expect to turn resistance, that predicts a Fib Ext. to 171.8. My Plan B is to expect a retracement to the 50% Fib of the Jackson Hole move, that predicts a Fib Ext. to 138.2%. I'll be looking for opportunities to sell, but I am waiting for new Weekly Pivots at next week market open to asses static and dynamic levels, lines and layers of support and resistance, and draw the trade plan for the week.

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