Hello Traders,
As mentioned yesterday, from now on I expect solid fundamentals streaming in from the US. Yesterday’s unemployment claims came in below the consensus of increased claimants of 256K at 246K, just like last week. Last week release was revised down from 249K to 246K and just short of the 4 week moving average by 3.5K.This was the 84th consecutive week where unemployment claims was below the 300K mark. On the other hand insured unemployment rate stood at 1.5% at 2046K and it was the lowest level since the June 2000.
In other news, crude oil inventories beat expectation and showed that there was more glut than initially thought. It came in at 4.9M against 0.4Me from last week’s -3.4M and there was a bench mark change in this review. The EIA didn’t include crude oil lease stock in this release because they are not available for commercial purposes and therefore a reclassification was done.
To the charts now and the tact for today is to short at all highs. Watch out for any retracement towards yesterday’s high of 0.7130 and sell but don’t narrow yourself too much. Sell when there is an overbought stochastics in the 15 min chart and a confirming down candlestick anywhere in the sell zone as marked in the attachment -check the 15 min chart. The reason for this is because of Retail Sale news coming in at NY open where there is expectation of robust release. The consensus for Core retail sales, Retail sales, Core PPI and PPI are all positive from last month sub zero readings.
So trade as follows today:
Sell Limit: 0.7110-0.713
Stop Loss: 40 points from where there is a sell signal.
TP: Trail your stops.
Have a good trading day and weekend.
If you have any questions, hit my inbox here at Forex.Today or you can alternatively add me on Slack. Username: @akoyofinancials,

NZDUSD 1HR chart-14.10.2016

Source: Dalmas Ngetich

NZDUSD 4HR chart-14.10.2016

Source: Dalmas Ngetich

NZDUSD 15 Min chart-14.10.2016

Source: Dalmas Ngetich

NZDUSD Daily chart-14.10.2016

Source: Dalmas Ngetich

NZDUSD Weekly chart-14.10.2016

Source: Dalmas Ngetich


  1. Thabang George Mofokeng says:

    Great Trade plan Keep up the great work Mr Ngetich

    1. Dalmas Ngetich - FOREX.TODAY says:

      Thanks George, its always my pleasure.

  2. Kash says:

    The 1HR200EMA proved to be good resistance today and ideal selling point with tight SL of 11 pips above for max bang for buck!

  3. Kash says:

    The 1HR200EMA(0.71288) creates confluent tones with the Daily R2(0.7125) as resistance for an ideal sell execution zone to profit from further bearish momentum (300 pips in my opinion).

    1. Dalmas Ngetich - FOREX.TODAY says:

      Couldn’t agree more. Usually execution at such confluence points provides the best rewards with minimum risk of capital. Best advise is to sell and hold for a couple of months, January being the best time to relinquish that position. I’m short on this and long on all JPY pairs

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